The Q Report – Q3 2025

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INTRODUCTION

Welcome, Q Report readers, to our analysis of the Victoria real estate market for the third quarter of 2025. After months of stable pricing and gradual inventory growth, Q3 2025 confirmed a “New Balance” in Greater Victoria, transitioning the overall market from an inventory-starved environment to one characterized by choice and negotiation, and a slower pace of transactions. The key theme is stability: the market is moving, but without the frenetic urgency of previous years, offering planning confidence to both buyers and sellers.

This quarter saw the continuation of a trend where thoughtfully priced and well-presented properties sell quickly, while general market statistics show moderation. Consumers are adjusting to a new pace, allowing more time for decision-making and property evaluation.

MARKET BREAKDOWN

Overview

  • Inventory Surge: Average monthly active listings for the Detached segment (<$1.5M) increased by +15.1% compared to Q3 2024, providing substantial new selection for buyers.
  • Price Stability: The MLS® HPI Benchmark Price for Single Family Homes in the Victoria Core saw a modest increase of +1.6% year-over-year (as of August 2025), confirming price stabilization rather than growth.
  • Condo Softening: The MLS® HPI Benchmark Price for Condominiums in the Victoria Core decreased by -1.4% year-over-year (as of August 2025), indicating downward pressure in the strata segment.
  • Balanced Conditions: The overall Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio (approx. 14.6% in August 2025) officially moved the market into the balanced territory (defined as 14%-20%), giving buyers more leverage than they have experienced in years.

THE BIG PICTURE: Transition to Balance

The most defining feature of Q3 2025 was the persistent rise in inventory combined with steady sales activity.

  • The Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio: At roughly 14.6% for the overall market in late Q3, the ratio signifies a shift away from a seller’s market towards balanced conditions. This is a healthy correction that provides breathing room for buyers, who now have more selection and less immediate competition, reducing the reliance on aggressive multiple offer scenarios.
  • Inventory Growth: Total active listings have consistently trended upward, driven by sellers entering the market to capitalize on sustained high prices and stable interest rates. This availability of choice is the primary factor supporting the “stable and balanced” narrative.

Detached Homes, <$1.5M

The Detached Market: Greater Choice, Greater Patience

The single-family market saw the most pronounced change in inventory levels, moving the needle firmly toward a balanced condition.

  • The Inventory Story: Average monthly active listings for detached properties (<$1.5M) hit 710 in Q3 2025, representing a significant +15.1% increase from Q3 2024. The quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) dip of -2.6% is likely seasonal but does little to reverse the annual trend of increasing supply.
  • Price Resilience: Despite the sharp rise in inventory, prices held remarkably firm. The Single-Family HPI benchmark price for the Core area increased, albeit minimally, by +1.6% year-over-year. This suggests a strong floor of demand, where sustained interest from families and external migration continues to support values, even as inventory climbs. For buyers, the leverage is in selection, not steep discounts.

Strata Homes, <$1.5M

The Strata Market: An Affordability Check

The strata (condominium and townhome) segment provided the clearest evidence of price sensitivity in the current interest rate environment.

  • The Price Dip: Unlike the detached segment, the Strata HPI benchmark price for the Victoria Core showed a minor decline of -1.4% year-over-year. This confirms that affordability thresholds are being tested, pushing some prospective condo buyers to delay or seek smaller units, thus softening demand and prices at the entry level.
  • Sales Activity: While pricing showed signs of pressure, sales volumes in the condo segment remained robust throughout the quarter. Condos represent a critical entry point for first-time buyers, leading to a persistent, albeit more price-conscious, level of activity.

Luxury Homes, >$1.5M

The Luxury Market (>$1.5M): A Return to Due Diligence

As the broader market stabilizes, the luxury segment returns to a more traditional pace where unique properties command attention, but over-pricing is punished with longer days on market.

  • Buyer Opportunity: With high inventory across all segments, luxury buyers now have greater flexibility and time to conduct due diligence, a stark contrast to the rapid-fire market of a few years ago.
  • The Value Proposition: Luxury properties that offer exceptional value—be it location, finish, or unique features—continue to attract strong interest. However, sellers must be acutely aware of pricing relative to increasing selection, as this segment can quickly be impacted by shifts in buyer confidence related to global economic uncertainty.

HPI® TRENDS

The MLS® Home Price Index® (MLS® HPI®) is purpose-built to gauge neighbourhoods’ home price levels and trends, using more than a decade of sales data and sophisticated statistical models to define a “typical” home based on the value home buyers assign to various attributes on homes that have been bought and sold. These benchmark homes are tracked across localized neighbourhoods and different types of houses. The Q Report’s HPI® trends compares relative regional price movements around Greater Victoria by tracking the HPI® Composite Benchmark Price across 15 districts, comparing Y/Y price changes.

HPI MAP ANALYSIS: Sub-Market Diversification

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) map confirms the reality that there is no single “Victoria market,” but rather a collection of micro-markets, each reacting differently to national trends.

  • Core vs. Westshore: The most significant observation is the bifurcation of price performance. While the Victoria Core remains highly valued (HPI benchmark of $1,308,100 for SFH in August 2025), areas further out may be experiencing greater volatility. Look for pockets in the Westshore and beyond where rising inventory has created short-term buyer opportunities.
  • Condo Concentration: The HPI data confirms that condo price softening is most acutely felt in the high-density Core areas where new supply and rate sensitivity collide. Buyers should focus their search in these areas where the HPI dip offers the clearest opportunity for negotiation.

FORWARD VIEW: Q4 2025

We anticipate Q4 2025 will maintain the current balanced state. The market will likely remain stable unless there is an unexpected change to the interest rate environment. Thoughtful pricing will be paramount for sellers, and buyers will continue to enjoy greater selection and the luxury of time for inspection and negotiation.

If you are thinking about making a move this year, do you think being well-informed, and having customized data insights would help you make the right decisions along the way? Get in touch now, book a no-hassle, no-obligation meeting and get our market insights working for you.  We are only a click or call away. 

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Dirk VanderWal & Fergus Kyne
Newport Realty Ltd.
(250) 385-2033 | info@victoriaqreport.com

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Notes

All views and opinions expressed in The Q Report are solely those of its authors, Dirk VanderWal and Fergus Kyne, and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of Newport Realty Ltd. or the Victoria Real Estate Board. Not intended to solicit parties already under contract. E&OE. 

Terms

For a list of terms and definitions used in The Q Report, click here.

Data Analysis 

The Q Report’s analysis includes listing and sales data exclusively from the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) ‘Core’, ‘Westshore’, and ‘Peninsula’ regions. Data is analyzed for unconditional pending and completed sales that occurred between 2025/07/01 and 2025/09/30 except where specifically noted otherwise.

Data Sources

Bank of Canada
BC Real Estate Association
Canadian Real Estate Association
Victoria Real Estate Board