INTRODUCTION
Welcome, Q Report readers, to our Q1 2025 report! Now more than ever, with the pace of the news cycle, it’s nice to slow things down a bit, and consider how the housing market performed over the course of an entire season.
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Overview
- Nationally, the end of 2024 saw a significant uptick in activity, with Canadian home sales increasing by roughly 25% compared to Q4 2023, according to CREA. This created positive momentum leading into 2025.
- Locally, after several unique years influenced by the pandemic, the Victoria real estate market is showing signs of returning to more predictable seasonal patterns. Expect typical ebbs and flows as the year progresses.
- However, keep an eye on broader economic factors. Uncertainty surrounding the new US administration could potentially temper the usual Q2 surge in listings and sales, which is typically the market’s busiest period.
- Inventory levels continue to tell different stories across market segments. The supply of strata properties (condos and townhomes) has grown more significantly over the long term compared to detached homes and luxury properties.
Detached Homes, <$1.5M
- The market for detached homes under $1.5M experienced an unusual start to the year. Sales volume decreased by nearly 8% from Q4 2024, marking the first time in recent memory that Q4 sales outpaced Q1 sales for this segment.
- Despite the dip in sales volume, prices showed considerable strength. The median sale price reached $1,110,000, representing a substantial 7.5% increase year-over-year and a 4.7% rise from the previous quarter.
- Homes sold more quickly than in the previous quarter, with the average days on market dropping by a full week, from 46 days in Q4 2024 to 39 days in Q1 2025.
- Inventory continued to build, rising 5.1% from Q4 and a significant 23% from Q1 2024. Nevertheless, buyer willingness to meet asking prices improved, with the average listing discount narrowing considerably from 3.0% to 1.7% quarter-over-quarter. Price per square foot also saw gains, up 1.8% quarterly and 4.9% annually.
Strata Homes, <$1.5M
- The market for condos and townhomes under $1.5M did see increased activity in Q1 2025. Sales numbers rose by 2.9% compared to Q4 2024 and a significant 18.6% compared to Q1 2024.
- Despite a growing supply of available units, with active listings up 2.8% quarterly and nearly 23% year-over-year, demand kept pace. This pushed the median sale price up to $610,000, a 2.5% increase from the previous quarter and a 1.6% rise from last year.
- Properties sold slightly faster on average compared to the end of last year, with the average days on market decreasing from 46 days in Q4 2024 to 41 days in Q1 2025.
- Sellers received offers closer to their asking price, with the average listing discount tightening from 2.3% in Q4 2024 to 1.7% in Q1 2025. The average price per square foot also climbed, increasing 3.7% quarter-over-quarter and 2.1% year-over-year to $638/sq.ft.
- Condos are often one of the first property types to slow down, and one of the last to pick up, during market cycles, so this increase in sales suggests we saw an increase in consumer confidence in the housing market during the first quarter.
Luxury Homes, >$1.5M
- The luxury market segment saw properties selling much faster in Q1 2025. The average days on market plummeted by 17 days compared to Q4 2024, down to 42 days. This marks a significant acceleration in sales pace for high-end homes.
- While fewer luxury properties were listed (down 8.9% Q/Q) and sold (down 3.8% Q/Q) compared to the previous quarter, the number of sales was still up nearly 11% compared to Q1 2024.
- The median sale price for luxury homes climbed to $1,979,500 in Q1 2025, an increase of 2.7% from Q4 2024 and a strong 7.6% jump year-over-year.
- Sellers in the luxury segment continued to achieve prices very close to their asking price, maintaining the trend seen throughout 2024. The average listing discount remained tight at 3.3% in Q1 2025.
HPI® TRENDS
The MLS® Home Price Index® (MLS® HPI®) is purpose-built to gauge neighbourhoods’ home price levels and trends, using more than a decade of sales data and sophisticated statistical models to define a “typical” home based on the value home buyers assign to various attributes on homes that have been bought and sold. These benchmark homes are tracked across localized neighbourhoods and different types of houses. The Q Report’s HPI® trends compares relative regional price movements around Greater Victoria by tracking the HPI® Composite Benchmark Price across 15 districts, comparing Y/Y price changes.
- Looking across Greater Victoria, property values generally increased year-over-year. The Highlands saw the most significant jump in its composite HPI benchmark value, rising 10.9% compared to Q1 2024.
- Several other municipalities posted solid gains, including North Saanich (+8.4%), Esquimalt (+6.4%), Saanich East (+5.3%), Metchosin (+4.9%), and Colwood (+4.6%).
- Victoria West was the only area tracked to show a slight decrease in its composite HPI value year-over-year, dipping by 0.5%. Other areas like Oak Bay (+1.2%) and Langford (+1.7%) saw more modest increases.
IN CLOSING
The Victoria real estate market presented a mixed but generally positive picture in Q1 2025, with price resilience evident across most segments despite varying sales volumes and inventory levels. Seasonality appears to be returning, but broader economic factors warrant attention moving forward.
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Dirk VanderWal & Fergus Kyne
Newport Realty Ltd.
(250) 385-2033 | info@victoriaqreport.com
Notes
All views and opinions expressed in The Q Report are solely those of its authors, Dirk VanderWal and Fergus Kyne, and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of Newport Realty Ltd. or the Victoria Real Estate Board. Not intended to solicit parties already under contract. E&OE.
Terms
For a list of terms and definitions used in The Q Report, click here.
Data Analysis
The Q Report’s analysis includes listing and sales data exclusively from the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) ‘Core’, ‘Westshore’, and ‘Peninsula’ regions. Data is analyzed for unconditional pending and completed sales that occurred between 2025/01/01 and 2025/03/30 except where specifically noted otherwise.
Data Sources
Bank of Canada
BC Real Estate Association
Canadian Real Estate Association
Global News
CTV News
The Globe and Mail
Victoria Real Estate Board